Rocky Mountain Area Predictive
Services
2006 Preliminary Seasonal Fire Weather / Fire Danger
Outlook
April 13, 2006
E. Resource Considerations:
In 2004, less than a quarter of a million acres burned. The numbers of
fires in 2004 was about 70% of the 10 year average (1994-2003) and the
number of acres burned in the RMA during the 2004 fire season was about
25% of the 10 year average. Compared to 2004, the 2005 RMA fire season
was average to well below average based on fire totals, although the potential
for lightning ignition was evident in June and especially July. In 2005,
the RMA had 3,194 fires that burned 84, 649 acres.
During the 2004 fire season, the RMA had less than average resource demands,
which includes an extended season due to hurricane relief efforts. The
Rocky Mountain Area Coordination Center (RMACC), including overhead, equipment,
crews and aircraft, filled just over 2,000 resource orders. 3 Type 2 Incident
Management Teams (IMT’s) and 2 Fire Use Management Teams (FUMT)
were assigned to 5 large fires or incidents in the RMA. No type 1 IMT’s
were assigned in the RMA during 2004. In 2005, the resource demand in
the RMA was about equal to that of 2004. Only 2,017 resource orders were
filled by RMACC. Fifty-six large fires were reported in the RMA that burned
over 72,000 acres. 4 type 2 IMT’s and 3 FUMT’s were assigned
to incidents in the RMA in 2005. The RMA never reached preparedness level
(PL) 4 or 5 in 2005.
Based on the past weather trends and climate outlooks for the remainder
of spring, it is anticipated that portions of the RMA will have an earlier
than normal onset of full fire season. However, expected weather trends
for the summer, in combination with ERC and 1000-hour dead fuel moisture
projections within certain PSA’s, it is anticipated that more resources
will be needed in the RMA in 2006 than the previous two years.
Acknowledgements
The following individuals contributed to the national climate consensus
forecast referred to in this outlook: .
Tim Brown, Desert Research Institute
Klaus Wolter, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostic Center
NOAA Climate Prediction Center
Web Sites for Graphics in this Document
US Drought Monitor
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html
Mountain NRCS Snotel Basin Average Snow Water Content http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/snotelanom/basinswe.html
Colorado Statewide Snowpack http://www.co.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/data/basinplotstate04.gif
Colorado Snow Water Equivalent by Basin http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/cgibin/snowup-graph.pl?state=CO
Wyoming Snow Water Equivalent (Map) http://www.wrds.uwyo.edu/wrds/nrcs/snowmap/snowmap.html
Wyoming Snow Water Equivalent by Basin http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/cgibin/snowup-graph.pl?state=WY
Black Hills Snotel Sites http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/snotel/South_Dakota/south_dakota.html
Percent of Normal Precipitation
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/current.html
NDVI Departure from Average Greenness http://www.fs.fed.us/land/wfas/wfas11.html
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